Thailand Microeconomic Weekly Update #42

THAILAND MACROECONOMICS WEEKLY UPDATE

The Thai Commerce Ministry plans to use a network of affordable Thong Fah (Blue Flag) outlets, cooperatives, and cooperative groups as distribution channels for the government’s Bt10,000 digital wallet distribution program to boost the economy. In September, the UTCC consumer confidence index improved to 58.7, driven by a stable political climate, although economic recovery was seen as slow. The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is teaming up with major mobile network provider AIS to distribute one million SIM cards to tourists over the next six months. Despite earlier concerns of a credit rating downgrade, UBS has assessed Thailand’s long-term debt sustainability as stable.

INDUSTRY

With earnings season underway the market is expected to move positively.

Government Funding Strategy for 2024

The Thai Fixed Income Association (ThaiBMA) has announced the government’s funding strategy for 2024, which is slated to amass 2.43 trillion baht, marking an 8.9% increase from 2023. A substantial portion of this funding will be generated through the issuance of government bonds and promissory notes, which are set at 1.25 trillion baht and 4.03 hundred billion baht respectively.Despite the aforementioned increase, there will be a reduction in the issuance of savings bonds, decreasing to 100 billion baht, a decrease of 23.07% from last year, and a cutback in foreign loans to 19,682 million baht, a decrease of 41.39% from last year . The issuance of Treasury bills will also see a decrease, dropping to 5.2 billion baht or a 3.7% decrease from last year.Dr. Somjin Sornpaisarn, Managing Director of ThaiBMA, unveiled that government bond yield experienced a rise across all maturities during the first three quarters of 2023. This was partly due to five adjustments to the Thai policy interest rate in 2023 and the unveiling of the government bond issuance plan for 2024.

FOOD AND BEVERAGE 

Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited (CPF)

On October 9, 2023, Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited (CPF) informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand that the communication pertained to CPF’s previous notice on May 28, 2021, in which they had informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand regarding their submission of an application for securities registration concerning Chia Tai Investment Co., Ltd. (CTI), an affiliated company located in China. This application was intended for the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and was identified by letter No. C.P.O. 037/2021.Subsequently, CTI informed CPF that they decided to withdraw the application for securities registration on September 11, 2023. This decision stemmed from CTI’s failure to achieve their operational objectives due to the lower-than-expected prices of pigs in China. In response, the SSE announced the delisting of CTI on its website on October 8, 2023.

TOURISIM 

The Ministry of Tourism and Sports has reported a decline in foreign arrivals for the week of October 2-8, with numbers totaling 497,966. This marks a 9.86% decrease compared to the previous week, primarily due to a significant drop in Chinese visitors. Many Chinese tourists chose to return home earlier than planned to avoid crowded flights at the conclusion of the Golden Week holiday. Additionally, some expressed safety concerns following the shooting incident at Siam Paragon on October 3.The tourism ministry is also monitoring potential disruptions in inbound tourist flows, especially from the Middle East, due to renewed tensions between Israel and Hamas militants. As a result, they anticipate a further decrease in arrivals to approximately 480,000 for the upcoming week.

Interestingly, the impact of the Chinese market on aviation is a more significant concern than the conflict in Israel. So far, the Israel-Hamas conflict has not affected airline operations in terms of fuel costs, as noted by Tassapon Bijleveld, te executive chairman of Asia Aviation. Nonetheless, it is noteworthy that the price of jet fuel has unexpectedly dropped this week, declining from $120 per barrel to approximately $105. Monitoring these fuel prices over the next few days will provide a clearer understanding of long-term pricing trends.

BOARD OF INVESTMENTS  

Mr. Narit Theodsatheerasak, Secretary-General of the Board of Investment (BOI), disclosed that from January to August 2023, investment promotion applications surged by 33%, totaling 1,375 projects, and realized a 47% uptick in investment value, reaching 465,058 million baht. Both metrics surpassed the figures from the corresponding period last year. Predominantly, investments were channeled into the electrical appliance and electronics industry, followed by the agriculture, food processing, automotive, and parts industries. Geographically, the eastern region attracted the majority of investments, amassing 270,908 million baht from 533 projects. Subsequently, the central region secured 111,810 million baht, the northeastern region 29,428 million baht, the northern region 14,281 million baht, the southern region 12,529 million baht, and the western region 11,376 million baht respectively.

Company Name Industry Type Investment Value
Chang’an Automobile Co., Ltd. Battery electric vehicle production project and plug-in hybrid electric car 8,862 million baht has production capacityBattery electric car (BEV) 58,000 vehicles per year andPlug-in hybrid electric car (PHEV) 36,000 vehicles per year
C&G Environmental Protection (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Project to produce electricity from waste with a steam turbine 4,892 million baht It has a production capacity of 35 megawatts and is located in the area of the Nong Khaem Solid Waste Disposal Center, Bangkok.
New Sky Energy (Bangkok) Company Limited. Project to produce electricity from waste with a steam turbine 4,892 million baht It has a production capacity of 35 megawatts and is located in the On Nut Waste Disposal Center, Bangkok.
Project Company Data Center True Internet Data Center Co., Ltd Project Company Data 3,586 million baht Located in the Pak Kret District area. Nonthaburi Province.
Thai Airways International Public Company Limited Air Transport Project 9,314 million baht in the purchase of 5 passenger aircraft with a total passenger capacity of 1,670 seats and a total cargo capacity of 303 tons.
Songcheng Holding (Thailand) Co., Ltd Tourist attraction 9,540 million baht Chonburi Province

SECTORAL UPDATE SET closed the week at 1,450.75 points, down 5.24points (-0.36%), trading value 36,895.02 million baht. 

 

The SET index is testing resistance, having risen with support and resistance between 1400 and 1450. The RSI has reversed from oversold levels, and the THB trend has also reversed, finding support and resistance at 36.2 and 36.60, with inflows boosting the THB.

 

Foreign Investors have come back as net buyers in the week due to a change of tone from FED members.

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