Thailand Microeconomic Weekly Update #43

THAILAND MACROECONOMICS WEEKLY UPDATE

The IMF has revised down Thailand’s GDP growth projections for 2023 and 2024 to 2.7% and 3.2%, respectively, citing global uncertainties, a weakened Chinese economy, and the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on oil prices and global inflation. Despite these challenges, Thailand has managed to maintain relatively low inflation rates, thanks to government economic support and declining regional food prices.

In a positive development, the government recently initiated a test program on the Purple and Red Line electric train routes, reaffirming its commitment to implementing a flat 20-baht fare system on all electric train routes in the capital. However, industrial sentiment in the country has steadily declined for the past three months, dropping to 90.0 in September. This decline is attributed to factors such as reduced production, decreased domestic purchasing power due to household debt concerns, lower global demand, a weaker baht, and the Bank of Thailand’s decision to raise interest rates.

Additionally, the government’s plan to distribute 10,000 Baht in digital funds to individuals aged over 16, originally scheduled for February, may face a delay as extra time is needed to ensure a secure system for disbursement.

INDUSTRY

The outlook for the upcoming week is uncertain, with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas being a primary factor influencing stock market direction.

ENERGY AND UTILITIES

The Thai government has implemented caps on diesel price of THB 30 per liter and cooking gas of THB 423 per 15 kg. canister to assist households in dealing with rising energy costs. The ministry, tasked by Prime Minister and Finance Minister Srettha Thavisin to ensure equal support for all energy users, is currently considering three possible approaches for benzene users. The first approach will focus on motorcycle taxis, which primarily rely on benzene as fuel, while the second will provide direct subsidies to low-income earners. These measures will be funded by a budget of 95 million baht per month and 4 billion baht, respectively, from the Oil Fuel Fund. The third approach involves capping the prices of all benzene fuels, which would require a substantial budget and discussions with the Finance Ministry. The ministry’s committee will convene its first official meeting on Wednesday, and a decision is expected to be reached soon.

Earth Tech Environment Public Company Limited

Earth Tech Environment Public Company Limited (ETC) has announced that its subsidiary, Get Green Power Company Limited (GGP), has entered into a power purchase agreement (PPA) with the Provincial Authority (PEA) to develop 10 industrial waste power plant projects, totaling 80 megawatts. These projects are named as follows: Proud Kwan Power Co., Ltd., Thorsaeng Energy Co., Ltd., The Prao Power Co., Ltd., Phan Saeng Dao Co., Ltd., Meekwan Power Co., Ltd., Khiang Kan Energy Co., Ltd., Me Preme Energy Co., Ltd., Phraofa Power Co., Ltd., Green Scene Energy Co., Ltd., and Green Care Energy Co., Ltd. The contract has a 20-year duration from the Commercial Operation Date (COD), with a fixed electricity rate of 6.08 baht per kilowatt, and an additional electricity charge of 0.70 baht per kilowatt-hour for the first 8 years of operation. These projects are expected to begin commercial operation in 2026.This investment in industrial waste power plants aligns with the government’s environmental policy, focusing on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and waste while converting waste into energy. It supports the development of a circular economy in line with the government’s Bio-Circular-Green Economy (BCG) policy.

TRANSPORTATION

After the implementation of the 20-baht flat fare on the purple and red lines, the Department of Rail Transport has reported an almost 90% increase in ridership. If the trial on the purple and red lines proves successful, the Transport Ministry plans to expand the flat fare to other electric train routes. The 20-baht flat fare measure will cap trips costing over 20 baht; passengers traveling shorter distances that cost less than 20 baht will still be charged the actual fare. The aim of this measure is to reduce the cost of living and decrease air pollution in the city. However, the policy has been criticized by political activist Mr. Somchai Srisutthiyakorn, who argues that it might impose an unnecessary financial burden on the government. Mr. Surachet Pravinvongvuth from the Move Forward Party also argues that the flat fare should not be considered a success, as the two lines selected for the trial have the lowest public usage.

REAL ESTATE 

The continuous decline in the price index of new condos in Nonthaburi and Samut Prakan over four quarters is linked to an oversupply, stemming largely from projects predating 2021. Many unsold units are part of older projects, which had lower development costs. As of Q2 2023, Nonthaburi and Samut Prakan had 6,705 and 5,991 unsold units valued at 14.8 billion and 23.2 billion baht respectively. High household debt has impeded lower-end segment buyers from securing home loans, prompting developers to initiate sales-boosting campaigns in Q3 2023. Despite this, the overall condo price index in these provinces alongside Bangkok increased to 155.0 in Q3 2023, marking a 1.2% rise year-on-year, driven by the price index growth in Bangkok condos.

ELECTRIC COMPONENTS   

Hana Microelectronics Public Company Limited (HANA) secured 4,587 million baht via a private placement to 25 institutional investors, aimed at funding machinery investments. On October 17, 2023, HANA announced the approval for the issuance of new ordinary shares to these investors, constituting 9.09% of its paid-up capital. This involved the sale of 80,487,800 shares at THB 57.00 each, priced at no less than 90% of the weighted average market price, as approved by the Board of Directors on October 16, 2023. The total funds raised amounted to 4,587,804,600 baht. Approximately 2,900,000,000 baht will finance machinery for Power Master Semiconductor Co., Ltd.’s silicon carbide production in 2024, while 1,600,000,000 baht is allocated for machinery to broaden HANA’s core operations in 2025.

TOURISIM

To boost tourism during the peak travel season, the government will allow Russian citizens to stay for longer periods. Starting in November, Russian visitors may enter Thailand visa-free and remain in the country for a maximum of 90 days, which is an increase from the current 30-day limit. This extension will be in effect until the end of April 2024, as announced by Tourism Minister Sudawan Wangsuphakijkosol.

In the year leading up to August, Thailand welcomed 923,113 Russian visitors, ranking them fifth in terms of the number of visitors, behind Malaysia, China, South Korea, and India, according to data from the Tourism and Sports Ministry. In the pre-pandemic year of 2019, approximately 1.5 million Russian tourists visited Thailand and spent around $3.3 billion, making them the third-largest spenders, as reported by official data.

CRYPTOCURRENCY 

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has granted Whale Exchange Company Limited (WAANX) a business license for digital asset trading, effective October 15, 2023. The company, registered on January 28, 2022, with a capital of 100 million baht,  Mr. Chaval Jiaravanon among its directors and authorized signatories. Mr. Chaval comes from a prominent Thai business family and has previously served as the CEO of Snapask (Thailand), an education startup. Notably, he possesses significant experience in the crypto industry, with involvement in Infinity Venture Crypto (IVC), VELO coin, and Lightnet Group.

Furthermore, several other companies have received licenses for digital asset trading, including Gulf Binance Company Limited. Gulf Binance, a collaboration between Gulf Innova and Binance Group, is poised to enter the cryptocurrency market in the fourth quarter, with expectations of securing a substantial market share.

SECTORAL UPDATE


 SET closed the week at 1399.35 points, down 23.69 points (-1.66%), trading value 52,983.02 million baht. 

                          

The SET index is sliding towards a support level of 1,387 due to escalating tensions in the Israel-Hamas conflict, prompting investors to flee riskier assets. The RSI remains oversold. The Thai Baht (THB) is weakening, with support and resistance at 36.52 and 37.07, as capital outflows persist. Domestic gold prices surged to a record high of 34,100 baht per baht weight, driven by increased demand for the safe-haven asset amid the Israel-Hamas conflict.

 

Since  the beginning of the month, Proprietary Traders and Investors were net sellers with local institution and Local individuals net buyers.

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