Thailand Microeconomic Weekly Update #45

THAILAND MACROECONOMICS WEEKLY UPDATE

Compress in a paragraph ‘ The FETCO Investor Confidence Index dropped by 31.5% in October to the bearish zone from all investor types. This is due to uncertainty from the Middle east and foreign outflows with exports being a positive factor and government stimulus.

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) revealed the confidence index for accommodation operators in October 2023, finding that the average occupancy rate was 54%, an increase from the previous month. November expected to increase to 60% with hotels still facing labor shortage problems.

Consumer confidence rose for a third straight month in October to 60.2 up from 58.7 in September for the highest level in 44 months due to recent government policy measures to control the cost of living, and higher foreign tourist arrivals and the slight recovery of exports.Thailand’s inflation fell by 0.31% in October due to government price reduction methods.

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin announced today that the digital wallet scheme will be launched next May, under which every Thai citizen who is 16 or older, who has a monthly income not exceeding 70,000 baht and has no more than 500,000 baht in bank accounts, will be eligible for the one-time 10,000-baht cash benefit, to be spent within six months

INDUSTRY 

The market will face some pressure due to external factors but the government stimulus is becoming more clear and materializing.

Banking

Two of Thailand’s leading banks, Kasikornbank (KBANK) and Siam Commercial Bank (SCBX), are actively participating in the bidding war for the acquisition of Home Credit Vietnam, a prominent non-bank financial institution. The deal is estimated to be worth around THB 26 billion, which is approximately 700 million USD. This move is seen as a strategic expansion of the Thai banks into the Vietnamese market, signifying a notable cross-border financial transaction. The bid has attracted attention from international media and places the Thai banks in direct competition with KB Kookmin Bank (South Korean financial) also vying for the acquisition. The outcome of this bidding process is keenly anticipated as it may significantly impact the financial landscape within the Southeast Asian region.

Real Estate

Property Perfect Public Co. Ltd. has launched “Icondo Active Pattanakarn,” a new condominium project in Bangkok, ready for occupancy. Catering to the modern lifestyle of young professionals and investors, the project offers one and two-bedroom units, with prices starting at THB 2.27 million (US$64K). The units are fully furnished, featuring air filtration and digital security systems. The development includes health-focused amenities like a fitness center with the latest equipment, a co-working space, and an Active Garden. Located on Pattanakarn Road, it’s well-connected to business districts and educational institutions, enhancing its appeal for residence and investment.

Industrial Estate Authority

The Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand (IEAT) is implementing incentives to stimulate land lease transactions within the “Smart Park” industrial areas. These incentives include waiving rental fees and offering free maintenance, aiming to create a compelling motivation for investors to lease land for production and investment purposes. The initiative is part of IEAT’s broader strategy to attract more investors to Thailand’s industrial estates, which are designed to support the country’s growing industrial sector and economic development.

The “Smart Park” is envisioned as a hub for high-tech industries and innovation, providing state-of-the-art infrastructure and facilities that meet the needs of modern manufacturing and digital technologies. By offering these financial incentives, IEAT is looking to reduce the initial costs for businesses and investors, making it more attractive for them to establish operations in Thailand.

Tourism Sector

 Tourism and Sports Minister Sudawan Wangsupakitkosol disclosed that between January 1 and November 5, 2023, Thailand has welcomed an impressive 22,622,522 international tourists. This represents a remarkable 203% surge compared to the same period last year, contributing to a substantial revenue of THB 954.239 billion (US$ 26.91 billion). The leading countries in term of the number of arrivals were Malaysia (3,693,227people), China (2,833,349 people), South Korea (1,343,372 people), India (1,326,579 people), and Russia (1,129,124 people)

Energy and Utilities

Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited

Avaada Energy, part of the Avaada Group in which GPSC holds a 42.93% stake through Global Renewable Synergy Company Limited (GRSC), has successfully bid for a project to install an additional 1.4 GW of solar farm capacity in India. This project will elevate Avaada Energy’s total capacity to 8.76 GW. The bid, facilitated by NHPC Limited, aligns with the Indian government’s clean energy policies and aims to support the country’s growing energy needs.

The project is significant for its long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), which spans 25 years, ensuring a consistent revenue stream. It is expected to generate approximately 2,500 million units of electricity annually, enough to supply about 1.8 million households with clean energy. Additionally, it will play a crucial role in reducing CO2 emissions by an estimated 2.3 million tons per year. The PPA contract underlines the project’s contribution to sustainable development and GPSC’s strategic business growth in the renewable energy sector.

Banking

 Krungsri (Bank of Ayudhya PCL) has formed a strategic partnership with True Digital Group to integrate big data and AI technologies into their financial services. This collaboration aims to transform Thailand’s financial sector by offering personalized services tailored to individual customer needs. True Digital’s expertise in data analytics and AI will be used to enhance Krungsri’s operational efficiency and resource management. The initiative is expected to lead to innovative financial services that not only meet but exceed customer expectations, while also promoting financial inclusion by improving business opportunities and the quality of life for their customers. The Information Technology and Digital (ITD) unit at Krungsri will play a crucial role in supporting this integration, focusing on growth in ASEAN, sustainable management, and innovation.

SECTORAL UPDATE

 SET closed the week at 1389.57 points a decrease of 15.40 ( -1.10%), trading value 50,967.94 million baht (US $1,419.98 million)

 

The setting support is 1385 with resistance at 1420 at the market swings with slight increase in volume at the end of the week

           

The USD/THB support and resistance levels stand between 35.50-36.00, influenced by Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance, exerting pressure on the THB. Additionally, the RSI currently sits at 38.34, indicating that it hasn’t reached oversold levels.

 

 Local institutions appears to be a net buyers with foreign investors coming in to support the flows of the market.

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