Thailand Microeconomic Weekly Update #46

THAILAND MACROECONOMICS WEEKLY UPDATE

The recent Cabinet decision allocates financial aid capped at 20,000 baht per farming family, aiming to bolster the agricultural sector. Concurrently, economic indicators reflect mixed trends: the Thailand Industry Sentiment Index dropped to 88.4 in October, its lowest since July 2022, while the Commerce Ministry sets an ambitious export growth target of 1.99% for 2024, aiming for approximately US$288 billion or 10 trillion baht. Credit card users face upcoming adjustments with higher minimum payments from the new year. Labor demand surged by 10.8% in the first nine months, particularly in the travel sector, rebounding post-pandemic. Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand’s latest report on November 10 noted a slight dip in international reserves from $214.1 billion to $212.8 billion as of November 3, reflecting ongoing economic fluctuations

INDUSTRY 

 Thai GDP will be in focus next week along with the FOMC statement with a more positive tone from China

Government

Amazon Web Services (AWS), Google, and Microsoft are set to invest approximately 300 billion baht (US$ 8.43 billion) in Thailand, a move suddenly as a major boost to the country’s economy. This investment, secured through Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s negotiations in the United States, aims to significantly enhance Thailand’s digital infrastructure and workforce skills. AWS will focus on cloud computing infrastructure, while Microsoft has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to advance digital technology and government e-services. Google, committing to make Thailand its fourth data centre hub in Asia-Pacific, also signed an MoU with Thailand’s Ministry of Digital Economy and Society. This investment is attracted by Thailand’s strategic location, infrastructure, and robust public health and education systems, alongside plans to adopt the Utility Green Tariff. Amazon’s strategy includes establishing three data centres initially, and the Thai government continues to encourage more tech giants to invest in the country. This substantial investment marks a significant step in establishing Thailand as a key player in the global digital economy.

Retail

Central Pattana Public Company Limited (CPN)

Central Group, Thailand’s leading department store owner, has acquired a controlling stake in Selfridges Group, a renowned luxury retailer. This strategic move, completed in partnership with Signa Holding, was finalized in August 2022 following an initial announcement in December 2021. The acquisition, valued at around 4 billion pounds (approximately US$5.31 billion), includes Selfridges department stores and other retailers like De Bijenkorf in the Netherlands. Central Group, owned by the Chirathivat family, and Signa initially held equal stakes in Selfridges, which were subsequently divided into two businesses. This investment marks a significant expansion of Central Group’s portfolio into the global luxury retail market.

TESG Fund

Thailand is set to launch the Thai ESG Fund (TESG), an Environmental, Social, and Governance-focused long-term savings fund, approved by the Finance Ministry in collaboration with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This initiative is designed to invest in 114 stocks listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand’s ESG index, aiming to attract investments between 20 and 70 billion baht (US$56.19 million to US$196.68 million)  , thereby significantly boosting the Thai stock market. The fund targets domestic ESG-compliant stocks and bonds, emphasizing sustainable investment practices. Additionally, investors in the TESG Fund may benefit from tax incentives, which adds to its appeal. The Finance Ministry anticipates the fund will have an estimated total value of around 10 billion baht (approximately US$277.01 million) by December, the TESG Fund marks a substantial step in Thailand’s commitment to sustainable investment, integrating financial growth with responsible environmental and social governance.

Thailand Rating

Fitch Ratings maintained Thailand’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BBB+’ with a Stable Outlook. This affirmation reflects the country’s external strengths and structural constraints. The rating action was announced on November 13, 2023, as part of Fitch Ratings’ regular review of Thailand’s credit status. The stable outlook indicates a balanced risk profile, suggesting that Thailand’s economic and financial conditions are expected to remain consistent with the current rating over the medium term.

Media

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) suspended trading of JKN Global PCL (JKN) stock on November 15, 2023, following the auditor’s refusal to provide an opinion on the company’s 3Q23 financial statements. This decision stemmed from JKN’s significant financial issues, including a lack of liquidity and a default on debenture repayments. JKN is currently negotiating to extend debt repayments and seeking new funding sources, alongside business and financial restructuring.

The company’s current liabilities, including various debts, exceed its current assets by over THB 4.28 billion (US$120.63 million). Furthermore, the Thai Bankruptcy Court has accepted a petition for JKN’s business rehabilitation, with a hearing scheduled for January 29, 2024. JKN also faces the challenge of assessing impairment on significant assets, including investments in subsidiaries, trademarks, intangible assets, and goodwill, collectively worth several billion Thai baht. These assets are under review for potential impairment by an independent entity.

SECTORAL UPDATE

 SET closed the week at 1415.17 points a increase of 0.44 points ( +0.03%), trading value 45,607.55 million baht (US $1300.69 million)

The SET Index holds at the support zone of 1390-1400 points with resistance for next week at 1426 points while in the medium term resistance is 1450 points.

The RSI rises higher in the week closing at 49.The USD/THB strengthens due to inflows with support at 34.85 and resistance at 35.50.

 

Foreign buying has been occurring near support alongside with institutional buying.  

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