Thailand Microeconomic Weekly Update #47

THAILAND MACROECONOMICS WEEKLY UPDATE

Thailand faces a mixed economic landscape as financial aid supports farming while low industry sentiment and a slight reserve decline pose challenges. However, targeted export growth and rising labor demand, notably in the travel sector, offer potential for economic recovery. Adjustments in credit card payments may impact consumers but reflect ongoing efforts toward financial stability. These events collectively shape Thailand’s economic trajectory, presenting both challenges and opportunities for growth and stability in the near term.

INDUSTRY 

The next week will be the Bank of Thailand’s interest rate decision which the policy rate stands at 2.50% currently

The Stock Exchange of Thailand

On November 21, 2023, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) introduced stringent rules for short selling, primarily targeting Naked Short Selling. Brokers are now required to provide proof of stock ownership within 15 days of a short sale transaction, with non-compliance leading to disciplinary action. This move aims to enhance market transparency and integrity. A task force, including representatives from the Korea Exchange and Nasdaq, will review trading practices and conduct retrospective checks on short sales. The SET is also intensifying scrutiny on Omnibus Accounts to identify real Beneficial Owners. Despite these changes, the SET is retaining existing short sale criteria like the Uptick Rule, acknowledging that the current market trend is consistent with external factors.

The Digital Economy and society Ministry

The Thai Digital Economy and Society Ministry has announced a major initiative to promote smart city development, offering a 50% corporate tax reduction for three years. Unveiled by DES Minister Prasert Chanthararuangthong at the “Thailand Smart City 2024” seminar, this policy aims to transform provincial hubs into smart cities focusing on areas like transport, energy, and the environment. Companies investing in these projects will benefit from the tax break and additional incentives like tax waivers on digital purchases in smart cities. This move is part of Thailand’s broader strategy to drive economic growth and sustainable urban development, leveraging technologies like the Internet of Things and Big Data.

Land Bridge Project

 The Thai government’s ambitious land bridge project, designed to link the Gulf of Thailand with the Andaman Sea and transform Thailand into a regional maritime hub, is facing significant opposition from local communities. Despite high-level presentations to potential investors at the 30th APEC Summit 2023, and a detailed development plan spanning from 2025 to 2040, which includes port development, expressways, and railways under a 50-year management contract, local residents are raising concerns. Their main apprehensions revolve around the project’s environmental impact and the benefit distribution, fearing that it will cater mainly to foreign investors and certain politicians while depleting local resources. This opposition puts the future of the project, including the crucial Special Economic Zone Development Act needed for its commencement, in a state of uncertainty.

SECTORAL UPDATE 

 SET closed the week at 1,397 POINTS, DOWN 9.18 POINTS (-0.65%), TRADING VALUE 32,806.39 MILLION BAHT ( $US 924.93 million) 

The SET Index support zone is at 1390-1400 points with resistance at 1450 points as the market will wait for the BOT monetary policy meeting decision.

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The RSI lowers slightly in the week closing at 42 as the USD/THB weakens due to outflows with support at 35.00 and resistance at 35.70.

For the month of November so far local Institutions have been net buyers signaling a fundamental zone of support for the index despite foreign selling.

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