Thailand Microeconomic Weekly Update #53

THAILAND MACROECONOMICS WEEKLY UPDATE

In December 2023, the Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the UTCC, rose to 62.0 from the previous month’s 60.9, driven by government initiatives to alleviate living costs and a surge in tourism. Additionally, the Stock Exchange of Thailand, represented by Mr. Rongrak Panapawutthikul, Deputy Manager, announced plans to extend stock trading hours to 5 hours from the original 4.30 hours. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, heading the National Soft Power Strategy Committee, endorsed projects across 11 industries, such as tourism festivals, sports, cuisine, film, music, arts, books, gaming, design, and fashion, with a proposed budget exceeding 5 billion baht. Meanwhile, the Thai National Shippers Council forecasts a 1% contraction in exports for 2023, with expectations of a 1-2% expansion in 2024. The cabinet approved the new Clean Air Bill, poised for introduction to Parliament, and the Bank of Thailand reported an increased confidence index among accommodation operators in December 2023, revealing a 68% average occupancy rate, up from the previous month.

 

The Investors Analysts Association anticipates that the Index will reach 1,590 points by the close of 2024, setting a first-quarter target of 1,476 points. This optimistic outlook is driven by the anticipated strong performance of listed companies, while concerns linger regarding the impact of monetary policy and geopolitical conflicts. The net earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 95.62 baht, with an estimated average EPS growth rate of 12.3%. A significant majority, 62% of analysts, foresee the maintenance of the interest rate at 2.50%, with a particular emphasis on retail, food, finance, and tourist-related sectors. Adding to the positive sentiment, the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organization’s Fetco investor confidence index remained in the bullish zone for December, registering 137, a notable 38.9% increase from the previous month. This surge is attributed to fund inflows, the ongoing recovery in tourism, and the government’s economic stimulus measures

The Investors Analysts Association anticipates that the Index will reach 1,590 points by the close of 2024, setting a first-quarter target of 1,476 points. This optimistic outlook is driven by the anticipated strong performance of listed companies, while concerns linger regarding the impact of monetary policy and geopolitical conflicts. The net earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 95.62 baht, with an estimated average EPS growth rate of 12.3%. A significant majority, 62% of analysts, foresee the maintenance of the interest rate at 2.50%, with a particular emphasis on retail, food, finance, and tourist-related sectors. Adding to the positive sentiment, the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organization’s Fetco investor confidence index remained in the bullish zone for December, registering 137, a notable 38.9% increase from the previous month. This surge is attributed to fund inflows, the ongoing recovery in tourism, and the government’s economic stimulus measures

 

 

INDUSTRY 

For this week the market trends are likely to recover with the anticipation of earnings season coming ahead with the Banking Sector 

CONSTRUCTION 

Italian-Thai Development (ITD)

Shares of Italian-Thai Development (ITD) fell sharply by over 12% on Monday due to plans to delay payment of 14.5 billion baht (USD 414 million) in debentures for two years, raising concerns of a payment default. This led to a significant drop in ITD’s stock value. The company will hold a meeting on Jan 17, to propose extending debenture maturity dates, increasing interest rates, and waiving the debt-to-equity ratio to enable debt restructuring negotiations. In mid-December last year, Tris Rating downgraded its rating on ITD to BB+ from BBB- with the negative outlook. The company’s plan to sell non-core assets is in progress, but its completion is uncertain. The overall outlook for ITD remains negative, with further downgrades possible if liquidity doesn’t improve.

ENERGY

PTG Energy Public Company Limited (PTG)

PTG Energy, a SET-listed local oil trader and operator of PT petrol stations, has acquired a 33.3% stake in Paisan Capital, a car leasing firm, for 825 million baht (USD 23.56 million). This move is part of PTG’s strategy to expand its non-oil business. Paisan Capital offers a range of services, including hire-purchase financing for second-hand trucks and loan refinancing. This partnership is expected to benefit both companies, with PTG leveraging Paisan’s truck-related business and Paisan expanding its customer base. The acquisition aligns with PTG’s broader investment plan and diversification strategy into non-oil sectors like clean energy.

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA)

The EA has started to transfer carbon credit from Bangkok E-Bus programme to Switzerland. This is a notable achievement under the Paris Agreement’s Article 6.2. This is the first time international trading carbon credit. This marks a significant step in international environmental collaboration, showcasing how innovative urban transportation solutions like electric buses can effectively reduce carbon emissions. This project is a key example of global efforts in sustainable development and climate action, demonstrating the critical role of cross-border partnerships in tackling environmental challenges.

HEALTH CARE 

Thonburi Healthcare Group Public Company Limited (THG)

Thonburi Bamrungmuang Hospital, under the Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG), is considering seven new investment projects, aiming to aggressively expand in the wellness and aesthetics market. The plans include opening new wellness clinics and a luxury condominium complex with a wellness center, targeting various markets including urban senior care and international clients. The hospital is collaborating with partners to develop new wellness products and services, tapping into Thailand’s growing wellness economy, projected to be worth 1.1 trillion baht ( USD 31.45 billion) by 2025. This expansion aligns with THG’s strategy to diversify and strengthen its position in the healthcare and wellness sector. The hospital will open a new Jin Wellness clinic next month at Siam Paragon as flagship beauty and aesthetics.

BANGKING

Kasikorn Asset Management Co., Ltd.

Kasikorn Asset Management has announced its strategic partnership with J.P. Morgan Asset Management. This collaboration aims to enhance multi-asset investment opportunities for Thai investors. Targeting ultimate goal of 100,000 million THB (USD 2.85 billion) million in asset value. The partnership is expected to bring together the expertise of both financial institutions to create stronger and more diversified investment portfolios, addressing the evolving needs of investors in the region. This move signifies a significant step in the development of Thailand’s investment landscape, offering new avenues for portfolio diversification and growth.

SECTORAL UPDATE 

 Last week the SET closed at 1,413.53 points, an increase of  5.29 points ( +0.38%), trading value last day of the week was 40,236.01  million baht ($US 1147.40 million.)

The SET Index is currently fluctuating within a support range of 1,370-1,380 points, while also testing resistance levels between 1,426-1,430 points, awaiting clearer government policy. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61.05.

With the RSI at 58, signifying strength, the USD/THB faces support at 34.00 and resistance at 34.80 amid the dollar’s weakening trend.

The SET Index is currently experiencing a support zone between 1,370 and 1,380 points, facing resistance at 1,426-1,430 points. Although unable to surpass this resistance, the index remains within this range, marked by a rising trading volume as market participants await formalized government policies. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is closing the week at 52.2. Meanwhile, the USD/THB is trading in the range of 34.80 to 35.40.

The past  week local individuals have been net  buyers starting for the week as earning season approaches with foreign investors heavy net sellers.

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