MACROECONOMICS WEEKLY UPDATE

Thai Nov exports drop 6.0% y/y, slightly worse than forecast

Thai Nov factory output falls 5.6% y/y, more than forecast

The Regional Economic Future Sentiment Index December 2022 has increased in all regions due to increased confidence from the service sector

The Country recorded a current account deficit of US$400 million in November with exports expected to continue dropping in December because of the global economic slowdown.

As the year ends the direction of the USD/THB has was relatively muted  

The Thai baht Support 34.30 with Resistance of 35.20 in a sideways pattern going into January 2023

THAILAND INFLATION   

Inflation in Thailand continues to decrease ,it fell from 5.98% in October to 5.55% in November 2022. As a result of the policy interest rate hike by 25 basis points to 1.25% interest rate, we expect the inflation to continue to decrease in December and so on.

 

INDUSTRY   

TOURISIM   

Thailand is receiving an influx of Russian visitors, with data showing monthly arrivals doubling in November and up nearly seven times than September. The top destination for Russians is Phuket where they stay for up to 7 to 10 nights.

The government is preparing to welcome Chinese tourists back after Beijing decided to lift the travel curbs earlier than expected in which there will be a January 5th meeting with the Public Health Ministry at the Government House to prepare for the return of Chinese tourists with the international tourist travelers to Thailand for 2023 raise to 25 million from the previous 20 million forecast with the return of Chinese travelers to be gradual. 

ENERGY    

Electricity Generating Public Company ( EGCO) 

Electricity Generating Public Company Limited or EGCO Group announced the successful disposal of its entire shares in three geothermal power plants in Indonesia to Star Energy Group Holdings Pte. Ltd.

EGCO Group realized the proceeds from the sale of shares in the amount of USD 485 million. (Equivalent to about 16,780 million baht)

TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS  

Thai Airways International    (THAI )

Thai Airways International (THAI) has announced it will recruit another 300-cabin crew from January 1 to 10 amid steady recovery for Thailand’s aviation industry.

Thai Airways monthly revenue is currently near pre-pandemic levels. 

The recruitment drive comes after travel demand increased significantly in the fourth quarter of this year, the national carrier said.

THAI expects demand to rise further next year. Demand from China, Thailand’s biggest pre-pandemic tourism market, is expected to soar from January 8 when the country lifts its quarantine requirement for travelers

Fuel Consumption

The full reopening of the country from July drove up fuel consumption, which grew by 14% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2022, the Department of Energy Business reported.

From January to November, consumption of fuels – diesel, petrol and gasohol, jet fuel, fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene and compressed natural gas – stood at 150 million liters per day.

Jet fuel consumption saw the highest growth of 90% to 8.7 MLD, up from 4.7 MLD in the same period last year, said department chief Nanthika Thangsupanich.

 

TELECOMUNICATION 

Advance Info Service Public Company Limited (ADVANC )

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (ADVANC) revealed that on December 28, 2022, the Central Administrative Court dismissed the lawsuit against Digital Phone Company Limited (DPC), a subsidiary of the Company. In the black case number 741/2559, as a result, DPC is not required to pay the amount of 552 million baht claimed by DPC.

Intouch Holding  Public Company Limited (INTUCH )

Intouch Holdings Public Company Limited (INTUCH) revealed that the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders No. 1/2022 today resolved to approve the sale of all 450,870,934 shares of Thaicom Public Company Limited (THCOM). to 41.13% for the group of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF) at the purchase price of 9.92 baht per share, totaling 4,472.64 million baht, with the vote of approval. 1,107,163,770 votes, equivalent to 94.7738%, while those who disagreed had 61,043,044 votes, equivalent to 5.2253%, and abstained 9,618 votes, equivalent to 0.0008%.

BANKING AND FINANCE 

Summary of securities trading value as of December 28, 2022 at 47,109.10 million baht, with the top 10 stockbrokers (brokers) with investors placing total purchase orders with the highest value. In the Market Share Report (Market share) highest as of 28 Dec. 2022 Securities Company Kiatnakin Phatra Public Company Limited has the highest market share at 19.91%.

CONSUMER 

AQUA

 Breaks into the food business line, grab shares of Domino’s Pizza, the world’s number 1 pizza with more than 38 branches in Thailand.

Mr. Chaipipat Kaewtrairat, Managing Director, Aqua Corporation Public Company Limited or AQUA revealed the resolution of the Board of Directors’ Meeting No. 10/2022 on December 28, 2022, with an important agenda on Consider approving the investment in Ethical Gourmet Co., Ltd. or EG and a refundable dposit of 50 million b

RETAILS  

 J The board resolved to approve an investment budget of approximately 689 million baht for the development of an open shopping center project (Community Mall) as a 2-storey building under the name of JAS Green Village Sukhaphiban 2 project, the total area of the project is over 20,000 square meters and Rental area of more than 14,000 sq m.

By allocating such investment, an investment of 239 million baht, entering into a long-term land lease agreement for 30 years or during the year 67-97 in the area of Prawet District, Sukhaphiban 2 Road.

The remaining 450 million baht is used for construction. It is expected to take no more than 1 and a half years to complete the construction and is expected to be operational by 2024, focusing on target groups with main purchasing power, namely residents in Lat Krabang, Prawet, Sukhapiban 2 areas with more than 90,000 homes.

TECHNOLOGY 

 Delta Technology/Electronic Components has become the biggest listed company in Thailand Stock Exchange(SET). The market capitalization has reached over 1 trillion baht at the end of the year 2022 on Friday. The share price has a significant impact on the SET index market, and it drives SET index break out the local resistance at 1650 and closed at 1660 points

POLITICS

Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is to seek another term in a general election due to be held in the kingdom before May next year, as told to local media. He will be leaving the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) to join the United Thai Nation Party while acting deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwan to be the party’s candidate for PPRP instead

Currently the opposition party Pheu Thai is riding high in the polls; however, the army-linked parties are more inclined towards a favorable outcome.

Thailand SET Index

Set Index Has broken into a new trading range with a support and resistance of 1630 and 1680 respectively due to recent developments with the China Reopening

 YTD Return as of 29/12/22 is +0.22%

 P/E of 18.08

Foreign Investors so far have been net buyers so far this week  with the trend to continue on

 

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The market sentiment has improved quite significantly due to the Chinese Reopening prospects.

The Net Buy and Sell of the Thai Stock Market this foreign buying for the whole year is a positive development for the market.