MACROECONOMICS WEEKLY UPDATE

 

THAILAND INFLATION 

Thailand’s headline inflation cooled to its lowest rate in nine months and came in below analyst forecasts, helped by easing energy and food prices, with the commerce ministry predicting consumer prices will decline further this year.The headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.02% in January from a year earlier, ministry data showed on Monday, compared with a forecast in a Reuters poll for a rise of 5.12%.

Inflation is expected to be below 5% in February on lower oil prices, senior commerce ministry official Wichanun Niwatjinda told a news conference.”Oil accounted for one percentage point of inflation in January. So, if oil prices fall, it will reduce inflation a lot,” he said.

SET THAI UPDATE 

The Thai stock market tumbled throughout the week after facing continued sell-offs by foreign investors but remained above 1,600 points. The SET was mainly pressured by concerns over the US interest rate trend due to the better-than-expected January US Non-farm Payrolls plus Fed officials’ remarks that support the continued interest rate hikes to tame inflation. In addition, the latest performance results of some listed companies such as electronics manufacturers and refinery companies that came out disappointing put pressure on the Thai stock market.      

     On Friday, February 10, 2023, the SET closed at 1,664.57 points, down 1.41% over-week. The average daily trading value was THB58,467.07 million, down 9.21% over-week. The mai closed at 606.55 points, down 1.09% over-week.

     February 13-17, 2023, KSecurities expects the SET to have support at 1,650 and 1,635 points, but resistance at 1,680 and 1,700 points, respectively. KResearch views that key matters to watch include Thailand’s GDP report for 4Q2022, Fed officials’ remarks, Thai listed companies’ 4Q2022 performance results, and foreign fund flows. The US economic data that warrant close monitoring include January CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, plus Weekly Jobless Claims. Close attention must also be paid to Eurozone’s and Japan’s GDP report for 4Q2022, plus Eurozone’s and Japan’s December Industrial Production.

INDUSTRY

CONSUMER AND RETAIL

Consumer Confidence

Thailand Consumer confidence index by the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) hit a 26th month high of 51.7 in January from 49.7 in the previous month. Consumers feel that the economy had improved following a clear recovery in the vital tourism sector, due to the return of the Chinese tourists.

Central Retail Corporation (CRC)

Central Retail Corporation (CRC), Thailand’s leading multi-format and multi-category retailing platform, intends to invest 28 billion baht this year with the goal of generating 270 billion baht in total revenue this year.

INFRUSTRUCTURE 

The Bang Pa-in- Korat Motorway have been approved by the cabinet 4,970 million baht with expected full opening in 2025.

The Nonthaburi-Kanchanaburi highway, also referred to as the Motorway 81 or M81, will undergo testing in 2024 and be fully operational by the start of 2025. The 96.4-kilometre motorway is part of Thailand’s public-private partnership (PPP) fast-track scheme. The program aims at accelerating the most important investment projects under the Ministry of Transport.

ENERGY

GSA Data Center Company Limited (GSA)

GULF-ADVANC Have begun construction on a 20-Megawatt data center with completion date in 2025.

A new company, GSA Data Center Company Limited (GSA), has been created as a joint venture between the three companies to run the data center.

The data center will be a best-in-class hyperconnected data center and will serve the greater demands of enterprises and cloud service providers in Thailand and the region. The data center is scheduled to begin commercial operations in 2025. 

PTT Exploration and Production Plc (PTTEP)

PTT Exploration and Production Plc (PTTEP) Expects its sales of oil and gas this year will reach a new high of 470,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) driven by gas supply from the Erawan field in the Gulf of Thailand.

INDUSTRIALS 

CEN closed the share swap deal.There was an increase by its capital by 216.15 million baht, acquired 19.89% of shares in ASTI, opening the way to the semiconductor business. All trading processes are expected to be completed by May 2023.

The company sees opportunities for business growth. Semiconductor which is growing steadily Demonstrates the potential to generate profits for the company. And the investment in ASTI is likely to increase the company’s profit base. The ASTI Share Acquisition Transaction will benefit the Company in expanding the scope of its business to be more diversified. and create good returns for the company.

ENERGY

Kasikorn Bank Thailand (KBank)

KTAM issues a 6-month bond fund to control risks, expects a return of 1.25%, sells IPO 8-10 Feb.

Mrs. Chavinda Hanratanakul, Managing Director of Krungthai Asset Management (KTAM), revealed that from the current investment situation that continues to fluctuate continuously. Causing investors to look for investment opportunities that are not high risk, such as government bond or treasury bills, etc. Therefore, the Krung Thai Bond 6M1 (KTGOV6M1) open-ended fund is offered for sale, with a maturity of about 6 months, a project value of 3,000 million baht, suitable for investors who take moderate to low risk. 

TMB Thanachart Bank (TTB)

TMB Thanachart revealed that in 2022, the bank’s health insurance sales grew by 221% from 2021 and expects sales growth to continue in 2023. Along with joining hands with business partners, Prudential Thailand aims to expand life insurance and health insurance to cover the needs of all customer groups more easily.

Bank of Thailand 

The Bank of Thailand will help vulnerable debtors to help them deal with the effects of rising interest rates with guidelines to handle household debt.

The high level of household debt could disrupt economic recovery and needs to be brought down to sustainable levels, according to BoT Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) inaugurated the Biz Portal system to issue a securities business license in electronic form. (E-licensing) is the first one signed by the minister level. To facilitate and reduce the burden on people and businesses. According to the SEC Digital Services Roadmap, which is in line with the digital government policy and the Electronic Government Act B.E. 2565.

Grand Asset Hotels Grande Asset Hotels and Property Pl

The hotel chain aims to record 6 billion baht in revenue this year which is three times more than last year as the company has recovered from the pre-pandemic level with half of the revenue target to be generated by five hotels in Bangkok and Hua Hin with the company basing the projection off of the 2023 tourist arrivals of 25 million.

The  occupancy rate is 72% on average, higher than 47% in 2022 and 20% in 2021.

TOURISM 

The country  are open to  new entrepreneurs to join the project between 8-15 February 2023 before the general public registers for the project that  will start from 7 March – 30 April 2023. 

Businesses that are allowed to participate in the scheme include hotels, restaurants, tourist attractions according to the list by the TAT, OTOP shop that has a business license, Spa/Massage for Health, and car rental/ boat rental with business license.

 

PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT 

“Siwarom Real Estate” opened for trading on the first day, priced at 3.26 baht, an increase of 1.06 baht or 48.18% from the IPO price of 2.20 baht per share, hoping to use the money to fund the development of real estate projects to cover in Bangkok and its vicinity

Thailand’s headline inflation fell to a 9-month low of 5.02% in January, from 5.89% in December, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) announced. Headline inflation in January stood at 108.18 points, up 5.02% year on year but still the lowest for the past nine months. 

The TPSO expects inflation to rise but at a slower pace in February as the cost of fuel, electricity and cooking gas continue to impact the prices of food and other goods.