Thailand Microeconomic Weekly Update #40

THAILAND MACROECONOMICS WEEKLY UPDATE

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has revised its GDP projection for 2023 down to 2.8% from the previous estimate of 3.6%, citing concerns about inflationary pressure stemming from government economic stimulus initiatives. Despite this, Thailand experienced an unexpected surge in exports in August 2023, reaching $24.28 billion, a 2.6% growth compared to the previous year, marking the first positive growth in 11 months. Conversely, the Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in Thailand declined by 7.5% year-on-year in August, falling to 91.8 points due to global economic slowdown, weak economic conditions, and unfavorable business sentiment, with sugar production providing some support.

                                       

Additionally, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) downgraded its economic growth forecast for the year to 3%, citing lower-than-expected exports and budgetary delays. However, the Regional Economic Future Confidence Index for September 2023 indicated optimism about economic improvement over the next six months, especially in the Eastern, Northeastern, and Northern regions, primarily driven by the service sector, although concerns about drought affecting agricultural production were noted in the northern region.

INDUSTRY

 The MPC  ‘’ interest rate hike from 2.25% to 2.50%, ended the prospect of a rate hike this year as there was is one meeting left in Dec. Meanwhile, profit in 3Q23 is expected to expand YoY and benefit from farmers’ debt relief measures as well as lower living costs for both fuel and electricity. Looking forward next week the set is expected to continue  face pressure with CPI numbers to be reported next week.

THAILAND CABINETS MEETING

According to the Prime Minister’s office spokesman Chai Watcharong, the approved Public Debt Management Plan for fiscal 2024  includes three main components:

  1. New Borrowing Plan: Totaling 194.43 billion baht, this plan covers government borrowing to offset the 2023 budget deficit and borrowing for infrastructure projects to enhance competitiveness.
  2. Existing Debt Management Plan : With a total of 1.62 trillion baht, this plan primarily focuses on restructuring existing debt due in the 2024 budget year.
  3. Debt Repayment Plan : The allocation for debt repayment is 390.54 billion baht, which includes government debt, state enterprise debt, and agency debt from the 2024 budget, along with debt repayment from other sources.

Additionally, the fiscal year 2024 plan involves four state enterprises with a favorable debt-to-revenue ratio: the National Housing Authority, Dhanarak Asset Development, the State Railway of Thailand (SRT), and the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA). These enterprises are authorized to borrow and manage debt under the plan.Overall, it is expected that the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio, as of the end of fiscal 2024, will remain not exceeding the 70% limit established by the State Finance and Fiscal Policy Committee, based on the measures outlined in this plan.

TOURISIM

Ministry of Tourism and Transport

The Ministry of Tourism and Transport in Thailand has released the latest tourism statistics for the week of September 18th to September 24th, 2023. During this period, Thailand welcomed a total of 481,404 foreign tourists, marking an increase of 10,696 visitors compared to the previous week. This increase represents a week-over-week (WoW) growth rate of 2.27% (Figure as of September 25,2023).

In cumulative terms, the total number of tourists who have visited Thailand since January 1st, 2023, stands at an impressive 19,499,116 individuals. These tourists have contributed significantly to the country’s economy, with foreign visitor spending generating a total income of 815,597 million baht.

Among the top nations sending tourists to Thailand during this period, Malaysia led the way with 78,042 visitors, followed closely by China with 61,728 tourists. India, South Korea, and Laos also contributed significantly with 30,679, 29,856, and 24,470 visitors, respectively.

Looking ahead to next week, it is anticipated that there will be an increase in the number of Chinese tourists, as well as tourists from East Asian countries and ASEAN member states. This expected growth can be attributed to adjustments in entry measures, such as VISA exemptions. Additionally, significant holidays, such as Chuseok in South Korea and special holidays in Kelantan, Malaysia, along with school breaks in Australia, are anticipated to contribute to this rise in tourism. As a result, it is estimated that approximately 520,000 foreign tourists will visit Thailand in the coming week, primarily from nearby regions, including East Asia, Oceania, and ASEAN markets.

However, it’s important to note that the aviation industry has not yet fully returned to normal, with ongoing challenges such as the rising cost of fuel, food, and inflation. These factors continue to exert pressure on both short-haul and long-haul tourism, affecting the pace of recovery in the tourism sector.

ENERGY AND UTILITIES

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA)

Mr. Vasu Klomkliang, Executive Vice President of Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA), announced that EA West Management Phuket Company Limited, a subsidiary of the EA Group, successfully secured a bid for a solid waste disposal project on Phuket Island. The project involves the implementation of an incinerator system with a minimum capacity of 500 tons per day. This project is a joint investment between Phuket Province and EA, structured as a Build Operate Transfer (BOT) arrangement. It will utilize kiln technology with a capacity exceeding 500 tons per day to produce 9.9 megawatts of electricity. The project will occupy an area of approximately 24,000 square meters (equivalent to 15 rai) and is expected to span 20 years, excluding the construction phase. The total investment is estimated to be around 2,000 million baht.

This initiative aims to address pollution issues and the limited space for landfilling solid waste on Phuket Island. It also addresses the growing annual volume of solid waste. Phuket Municipality recognized these challenges and enlisted King Mongkut’s University as a consultant to assess the feasibility of private sector involvement in solid waste management. Consequently, the decision was made to replace the existing 250-ton-per-day solid waste incinerator system with a more substantial incinerator capable of processing at least 500 tons per day, with EA being selected to undertake the project.

MEDIA 

JKN Global Public Company Limited (JKN)

On September 27, 2023, debenture shareholders approved a resolution for JKN Global Group Public Company Limited (SET: JKN) to extend the maturity date of the JKN239A Debenture to February 23, 2024 from September 1,2023. Under this resolution, JKN will undertake partial repayment of the principal amount of the JKN239A Debentures, along with accrued interest (to be determined at a later meeting), totaling THB 19.5 million on December 15, 2023. The remaining unpaid principal balance, amounting to THB 432.45 million, will be settled by the company on the extended maturity date of the JKN239A Debentures, which is set for February 23, 2024.

Additionally, the debenture holders agreed to increase the interest rate on the JKN239A Debentures from 6.60 percent per annum to 7.00 percent per annum. Notably, the debenture holders also granted waivers for any default events and the exercise of rights to call for immediate debt repayment, as specified in the relevant debenture terms, in case of non-repayment of principal and interest on the originally scheduled maturity date of September 1, 2023.

AUTOMOBILE  

The cabinet agreed during its weekly meeting on September 26,2023 to allocate 1.024 billion baht to support measures and promote the purchase and production of electric vehicles in Thailand. The fund will come from the amount earmarked for “emergency or necessary expenditure in the central budget. Under the EV 3.0 policy, EV importers are granted tax incentives and the price of electric vehicles is subsidized by a maximum of THB 150,000 per vehicle. This policy is set to expire on December 31,2023. 

SECTORAL UPDATE

                                                                              SET Index is currently around 1478 points waiting for a support level and reversal 

The SET index dipped below previous support, anticipating support and resistance levels at 1465-1500 for a potential reversal, while the RSI hit oversold levels, and the THB weakened against the USD, with support at 36.35 and resistance at 37.00.


Foreign Investors overall put in selling pressure with some buying during the week.

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