Thailand Microeconomic Weekly Update #41

THAILAND MACROECONOMICS WEEKLY UPDATE

The World Bank has lowered Thailand’s 2023 GDP growth forecast from 3.6% to 3.4 due to a regional economic slowdown. The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking (JSCCIB) estimates Thailand’s 2023 economic growth to be between 2.5% and 3.0%. Inflation in Thailand dropped to 0.30% in September, mainly due to lower energy prices supported by government subsidies and declining food prices. The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) reduced power tariffs from 4.45 baht to 3.99 baht per kilowatt/hour from this month to December.

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration will place 1.5 million sandbags along the Chao Phraya River to prevent flooding as the Chao Phraya Dam discharges more water due to increased rainfall. According to the FETCO Investor Confidence Index survey in September 2023, investor confidence for the next three months stands at 112.14, down 20.6% from the previous month but remains stable. Motorcycle production is expected to increase in Q4.

INDUSTRY

Inflation is down and the markets are still under pressure from recent events in Thailand along with continued outflows and a weaker Thai Baht. Next week the consumer confidence figures are to be reported.

TOURISIM

A tragic shooting incident occurred at the Siam Paragon mall in Bangkok, Thailand, where a 14-year-old boy shot dead two people, including a Chinese tourist and a Myanmar citizen working at the mall, and injured five others. The shooter, who had a history of mental illness and had not been taking his medication, was perceived by the police. Thailand’s Tourism Minister emphasized that this was an isolated incident but acknowledged that it casts a shadow over the country’s tourism industry, especially amidst expectations of a surge in tourist arrivals due to a new visa-free program for visitors from China and Kazakhstan.

In response, Thailand will enhance safety measures, including tightening weapons screening at tourist spots. The incident has impacted the nation’s stock market and raised concerns about its economic recovery, given the significant role tourism plays in Thailand’s economy. The government and tourism authorities are now working to restore confidence among international travelers and improve Thailands image as a safe tourism destination.

MINISTRY OF COMMERCE 

The Commerce Minister of Thailand, Phumtham Wechayachai, announced that the prices of over 150,000 products and services will be reduced by up to 87% immediately and will last until the end of December. This decision, part of the government’s Quick Win policy, is aimed at reducing expenses, increasing income, and expanding business opportunities. A total of 288 business operators, including manufacturers, distributors, service providers, and online platforms, have agreed to this price reduction across various categories of goods and services. The products and services are divided into different categories, each with its own maximum discount percentage, such as food and beverages (up to 87% discount), essentials (up to 80% discount), and agricultural inputs (up to 40% discount), among others. Service categories include medical services, car maintenance, and logistic and courier services, with varied discount percentages. The government has not only requested this of businesses but also promised to assist them by finding ways to reduce costs and addressing regulatory obstacles.

Bank of Thailand

The Bank of Thailand is prepared to manage the volatility of the baht, which has depreciated by 9% past 37 to the US dollar, amidst fluctuations exceeding the country’s economic fundamentals, according to the central bank’s governor, Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput. The volatility is attributed to external factors like anticipated US interest rate hikes and a decline in China’s yuan, as well as internal factors like falling gold prices. Despite the volatility, the bank believes Thailand’s economic recovery remains on track, driven by tourism and private consumption, with inflation expected to stay within the 1-3% target range. The country also boasts strong international reserves of US$245 billion. However, concerns arise from the public debt being 62% of GDP and potential long-term expansion and structural issues. The governor emphasized the importance of regulatory development to address structural issues, attract investments, and sustain economic growth.

ENERGY AND UTILITIES  

Ratch Group Public Company Limited (RATCH)

On October 3, 2023, RATCH Group Public Company Limited (SET: RATCH) announced the establishment of RATCHTEX Company Limited, a subsidiary, for the purpose of venturing into the Solar PV Floating Systems business in Nonthaburi.RATCHTEX has registered a capital of 1,000,000 Baht, which is divided into 100,000 ordinary shares, each with a value of 10 Baht. RATCH will retain a 60% ownership stake in RATCHTEX, while Texplore Company Limited will hold the remaining 40%. The entire 600,000 Baht capital has been fully funded from RATCH’s operational funds.

TELECOMMUNICATIONS 

The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) has approved National Telecoms Public Company Limited (NT) to transfer use of 5 MHz of the 700 MHz spectrum to Advanced Wireless Network Company Limited (AWN), a subsidiary of Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (AIS or ADVANC). NT and AWN have signed agreements to enhance and expand their 4G/5G capabilities. AWN will establish a 4G/5G network on the 700 MHz spectrum, deploying 13,500 base stations within 2 years, which NT will use to provide mobile phone services, including 4G and 5G, to its customers until the license expiration on March 31, 2036. This collaboration, based on infrastructure sharing, aims to minimize redundant 5G investments, maximize spectrum capacity use, and expand Thailand’s 5G network capabilities.

PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT

Magnolia Quality Development Corp (MQDC), a countrys leading non-listed developer in Thailand, is reportedly facing liquidity issues, sparking concerns in the already troubled Thai real-estate sector. Despite denials of such issues by MQDC’s advisor for corporate affairs, Charlotte Donavanik, industry and financial sector sources, including bankers, indicate that the firm is experiencing a financial squeeze. Some suppliers have allegedly encountered payment delays and dishonored cheques, further fueling the rumors. MQDC has been pivotal in several development projects, including the substantial Forestiasproject, which involves an investment plan exceeding 125 billion Baht. The industry outlook is dimmed by these reported troubles, particularly impacting smaller players in the sector. Furthermore, many developers have been grappling with financial strain due to the economic slowdown, leading to price slashes and project delays in the real-estate sector. MQDC has substantial outstanding bond obligations exceeding 53.8 billion Baht due until July 2026. More details on the issues faced by MQDC are expected to be unveiled in the upcoming MQDC Expofrom October 12-15. 

SECTORAL UPDATE

                                       
 SET closed the week at 1,438.45 points, down 12.10points (-0.97%), trading value 40,921.64 million baht. 

The SET index dropped below 1465 points, establishing new support at 1400 points and resistance at 1465, driven by investor concerns about US government bond yields. The RSI remains oversold, indicating a lack of reversal. The Thai Baht (THB) is weakening more slowly, with support and resistance at 36.60 and 37.35, but persistent outflows are pressuring the currency.

The week of October started off with outflows from Froreign Investors putting the pressure.

Related Posts