Thailand Microeconomic Weekly Update #50

THAILAND MACROECONOMICS WEEKLY UPDATE

The Cabinet has approved the fiscal 2024 budget and a draft act; the Budget Bureau is set to present it for final approval on December 26. Additionally, a mid-term financial plan for 2024-2029 with a projected GDP growth of 5.3% annually has been greenlit by the government. However, both the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have revised down their forecasts for Thailand’s economic growth in 2023 to 2.5%, citing various factors such as export contraction, reduced government spending, and lower investment from both public and private sectors.

On a brighter note, the daily minimum wage for Thai workers is due to increase from January 1, 2024, ranging from 330 to 370 baht across provinces, marking an average increase of 2.4%. The Thailand Industry Sentiment Index saw an improvement in November, hitting 90.9 points due to tourism recovery and governmental measures to alleviate financial burdens.

Furthermore, the government aims to reach an electric vehicle production capacity of 359,000 units next year, investing Bt 39.5 billion and introducing incentive packages to boost production. Lastly, the Bank of Thailand’s International Reserves Report on December 8 stood at $218.6 billion, a slight decrease from the $220.4 billion reported on December 1.

INDUSTRY 

The market is anticipating a key Central Bank Meeting from the FED next week

Tourism

Thai cabinet’s decision to extend visa-free entry to Japanese business visitors, previously available only to Japanese tourists. This policy, effective from January 1, 2024, is designed to facilitate investment by easing the entry process for Japanese business representatives. The visa-free entry will be available until December 31, 2026. This decision underscores the significant trade and investment relationship between Thailand and Japan.

Thai Ministry of Tourism and Sports

The Thai Ministry of Tourism and Sports recently reported a significant influx of tourists, with over 100,000 visitors from China in the past week, representing the highest number among international tourists. This surge is largely attributed to a popular concert event (Jay Chou concert). From December 4 to December 10, Thailand welcomed a total of 655,653 foreign tourists, averaging 93,665 visitors per day. The top five countries contributing to this tourism wave were China, Malaysia, Russia, South Korea, and India. Since the start of the year, Thailand has seen 25,736,865 tourists, generating an impressive revenue of THB 1,098,082 million from the tourism sector.

Energy and Utilities 

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited (OR)

PTT Oil and Retail Business Plc’s (OR) plan to construct budget hotels at its petrol stations, along with adding community malls. This initiative aims to bolster the company’s non-oil business segment. The company will hire a business consultant for a three-month planning phase, followed by a two-month period for selecting a hotel chain operator. The hotels, designed for budget travelers, will feature 50 to 100 rooms and offer various services like food, convenience stores, and laundry. The hotel will serve tourists with a limited budget that want to stay for a few nights. The project’s budget is under study, with more clarity expected by June next year. This move is part of OR’s broader strategy to diversify into wellness, healthcare, and beauty businesses at its petrol stations.

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (BCP)

The Bangchak Petroleum Plc Sriracha Refinery’s first-time accommodation of a large Suezmax crude oil tanker, the “Nordic Pollux.” This tanker, carrying 950,000 barrels of Qua Iboe crude oil, marks a significant step in enhancing the refinery’s capabilities and efficiency in crude oil procurement and transportation. The successful accommodation of the Suezmax vessel, which can carry between 120,000 – 200,000 DWT (Deadweight Tonnage) , reflects Bangchak’s commitment to upgrading its facilities and standards to handle large-scale operations efficiently.

Logistics

Ama Marine Public Company Limited (AMA)

The AMA Marine Plc’s acquisition of a new vessel, named “Yanee.” This vessel, with a 13,000 DWT capacity, was built in 2009 and has about 16 years of operational life remaining. It is a tanker for oil and chemicals, purchased for $9.4 million from Mr. Genya Ishimine, President of GS Maritime S.A., Japan. The “Yanee” will be deployed for transporting liquid cargo in regions like East Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia, including China, South Korea, Japan, India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, thus enhancing AMA’s shipping services revenue.

SECTORAL UPDATE 

 SET closed the week at 1,391.03 points, an increase of 12.09 points ( -o08.88%), end day trading value 61,137 million baht ($US1,756.42 million)

The current range for the SET index is 1370 to 1426 points short term resistance at 1400 point. The RSI is showing bullish divergence after the weeks false breakdown compared to the recent trading range.

The USD/THB has strengthened with a range of 34.75 and 35.50.

Foreign Investors have become net buyers recently in the end of the week along with institutional investors.

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